BIOMETRICS SECTION NEWS, APRIL 2010
Edited by Page Moore , Biometrics Section Publications Officer

EXCITING PROGRAM AT THE 2010 JSM
The theme of this year's Joint Statistical Meetings, August 1-5 in Vancouver , BC , Canada is "Statistics: A Key to Innovation in a Data-Centric World". The Biometrics Section is proud to sponsor one continuing education course and four invited sessions.

Regression Modeling Strategies (Sunday, August 1, 2010)
Dr. Frank Harrell Jr., Professor and Chair, Department of Biostatistics, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville , Tennessee will be giving a one-day short course on Regression Modeling Strategies . Regression models are frequently used to develop diagnostic, prognostic, and health resource utilization models in clinical, health services, outcomes, pharmacoeconomic, and epidemiologic research, and in a multitude of non-health-related areas.  Regression models are also used to adjust for patient heterogeneity in randomized clinical trials, to obtain tests that are more powerful and valid than unadjusted treatment comparisons.  Models must be flexible enough to fit nonlinear and non-additive relationships, but unless the sample size is enormous, the approach to modeling must avoid common problems with data mining or data dredging that result in overfitting and a failure of the predictive model to validate on new subjects.

All standard regression models have assumptions that must be verified for the model to have power to test hypotheses and for it to be able to predict accurately.  Of the principal assumptions (linearity, additivity, distributional), this short course will emphasize methods for assessing the first two.  Practical but powerful tools are presented for validating model assumptions and presenting model results. This course provides methods for estimating the shape of the relationship between predictors and response.

The first part of the course presents the following elements of multivariable predictive modeling for a single response variable: using regression splines to relax linearity assumptions, perils of variable selection and overfitting, where to spend degrees of freedom, shrinkage, imputation of missing data, data reduction, and interaction surfaces.  Then a default overall modeling strategy will be described, with an eye toward "safe data mining".  This is followed by methods for graphically understanding models (e.g., using nomograms) and using resampling to estimate a model's likely performance on new data.

Participants should have a good working knowledge of multiple regression.  The following articles might be read in advance:
•  Harrell, Lee, Mark: Stat in Med 15:361-387, 1996.
•  Spanos, Harrell, Durack: JAMA 262:2700-2707, 1989.

Some participants may want to read Chapters 1-5 and 10 of the instructor's book Regression Modeling Strategies (NY: Springer, 2001).
See http://biostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/rms for more background information.

Invited Sessions
In addition, the Biometrics Section is sponsoring an exciting program of invited sessions and talks spanning a broad range of topics in biostatistics. The titles and organizers of the invited sessions are given below.

• "Statistical Evaluation of Markers Used to Select Treatment" , organized by Margaret Pepe, University of Washington .
• "Study Design and Statistical Analysis Challenges in Women's Health Studies", organized by Marcia Ciol, University of Washington .
• "Evaluation of Risk Prediction", organized by Shulamith Gross, Baruch College .
• "Getting More from Genome-Wide Association Studies", organized by Mitchell Gail, National Cancer Institute.

The Biometrics Section thanks Jerry Heatley, our JSM Continuing Education Chair, and Hormuzd Katki, our JSM Program Chair, for their wonderful job in organizing these courses and sessions. Check the online program at the 2010 JSM web site (available through the ASA web site www.amstat.org ) for updates on locations and times.